It is easy to explain how a metagame composition develops in a competitive environment. Because people are motivated to win tournaments, they need to be playing a deck that can win consistently. So a plurality, if not a majority, will be playing the deck that they think is the best in the format; meaning that it consistently wins in the majority of matchups. Sometimes that edge is thin, but in large enough sample sizes, a 55-45 edge in 75% of the potential matchups will become a substantial factor in deciding what deck to play. Historically, most of the 'best decks in the format' are not much better than 55-45 in general, but again I must stress: that is a significant edge.
Now a second contingent of people will be playing a different deck, one that is not as good against a variety of decks, but is favored against the 'best deck'. So you are a 40-60 underdog in 66% of the matchups, but a 80-20 favorite in the most frequent matchup. This is a fundamental kernel of deck selection strategy. This choice is a big part of what people mean when they say "metagaming" in the context of Magic formats.
There will also be some people playing other 'rogue' decks, or 'pet decks', or 'home brews', but when a particular format's metagame composition is stable, most people will either be playing the best deck, or trying to exclusively beat the best deck at the cost of all others. That is how things end up when the decision process is competition...but Commander isn't really all that competitive for most people. So how do you assemble a metagame in a format where people don't strategically optimize their metagame decision making?
The answer is simple...Fashion. Cue video.
Since I am a dispenser of knowledge and opinions, part psychologist, part life coach, part philospher...part analyst...mostly cartoon rabbit - I forgot where I was going with this, but the important takeaway is: if you haven't watched The Flight of the Conchords you need to. It is my legal and moral responsibility to distribute this public service announcement to as many people as I can. In the above clip we see how the normally dorky Brett and Jermaine are transformed into fashion forward heart throbs by a bottle of hair gel. I am starting to imagine the confused looks on some of your faces. The brows all-a-furl with the burning question: "Grandpa, what does any of this have to do with Commander?"
Competitive environments are dominated by the best optimizers. You win more, you propagate more. Casual environments in Magic are dominated by fashion. It is not what wins the most that becomes popular, but what has the most 'it' factor. It is the newest, the funnest, the flashiest, the most underground, the most retro, the most gimmicky - whatever the cool thing of the moment is, you want to be doing that.
Think back, if you will, a few years ago. Before the first Commander product was released by Wizards, there was a distinct lack of enemy-color "wedge" commanders. Or Generals, as they were called then, I suppose. You could play the Planar Chaos dragons, and a small smattering of other choices like Doran the Siege Tower, but all-in-all your choices were limited. You didn't see many Green/Black/White or Black/Blue/Green decks. Suddenly, when the Commander pre-cons came out, everyone wanted to play a Kaalia of the Vast deck. Karador, Ghost Chieftan. The Mimeoplasm. These decks were literally everywhere. The convenience and price of the Commander product brought new players into the format and got old players excited about new cards. The metagame was dominated by these new Legendary Creatures, not because they were better cards or strategies than previous offerings (in fact in many cases they were just flat-out worse, ask UL about his opinion of The Mimeoplasm), but because they were fashionable at that moment. Of course, over time, their popularity has waned. Some, like Ghave and Animar, have stuck around and carved out permanent niches in the Commander metagame, but the others have died out. When was the last time you heard someone rave about how good their Damia, Sage of Stone deck was? The same happened with the Avacyn Restored angels, the RTR champions, etc. The evidence is beyond dispute. Without competition to sculpt better strategic deck choices, the format instead moves through phases like seasonal fashions. People play the newest stuff until they get bored, dig out an old favorite and pair it up with a newly printed enabler, or maybe they give mono color a shot based on some new mechanic that gets printed, but eventually things settle back down until the next 'fashion show'.
Don't misunderstand, I am not condemning this. It is in no way bad. It is fun. It is exciting. It keeps things fresh...or fresher at least and it requires less maintenance than altering a banned list every few months. As a side effect though, some weird things happen. When you want to try out a new archetype it is tough to know where to start. What cards do you start in your 99? Well an easy way to get an idea is to just look at other people's deck lists. This is how it typically happens too. You do a 10 minute Google search, look for some common threads, incorporate them into your deck and fill up the rest with your personal favorites or some new techy pet cards you want to try out to give the deck your own personal flair. If you repeat this process a few thousand times for every potential commander, then you start to see how the same cards are always popping up in a particular deck. Instead of being OPTIMIZED, i.e. choosing the cards to win the most games, decklists become CENTRALIZED, i.e. including more 'staple' cards that are common to the most viewed online lists and deck techs. A centralized deck is one that contains the cards that you would EXPECT to see in it, whether they are actually the best strategic choices or not. Think about your local metagame or even - GASP - your own decks! They are probably very centralized, with a few random exceptions for "hipster" decks or 'secret tech' cards.
This will be the focus of next weeks article. Centralization...and how it became the dominant deckbuilding principle in Commander.
I hope you have been enjoying this somewhat unconventional article series, because it is going to continue at least for the next few weeks. Remember to like/comment/favorite/subscribe/hashtag/retweet/pin/whatever it is you are supposed to do...I don't understand how to internet. And remember my friend: Fashion is danger.
-GG
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