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While it isn't Ancestral, it is close enough to get people bending over backwards trying to abuse it. The Magic community has been on fire as of late. Preliminary results have shown that the card is warping multiple formats and that has many players in something of a tizzy. I am going to breakdown how things stand in each competitive format and make a prediction about whether or not we will be seeing Treasure Cruise on the next banned and restricted update.
Standard: Current Standard isn't exactly what I would call diverse. There are two clear front runners are varying flavors of Abzan and Jeskai. The only deck that is even willing to play Treasure Cruise is the Ascendancy combo deck. I think that it is a good sign for Standard when a combo deck is playable. The format will suffer if combo becomes the number one deck to beat, but I think that is pretty far away from happening. Treasure Cruise will certainly not be banned now and unless things change dramatically in the next two sets, it will stay legal until rotation.
Verdict: No ban.
Khans Block: It is tough to speculate on what the block metagame is going to look like, but if Standard is any indicator of player tendencies, we will see many ports of existing decks. In fact, Abzan is likely to still be good without Fleecemane, Brimaz, Ajani, and Elspeth because we are going to see three more planeswalkers at least one of which will be Green. There are likely to be solid two and three-drops to fill out the curve as well. With at least one solid 'fair' deck to keep Treasure Cruise in check, I think it should all turn out okay. Just for argument's sake though: Lingering Souls was banned in block and Treasure Cruise is better than Lingering Souls in my opinion.
Verdict: Heck if I know.
Modern: Modern appears to be the most affected of any format. It could just be that Standard and Modern have the most premier events, so the card is getting more exposure, but the players are calling for blood already. I think it is a foregone conclusion than Cruise gets banned in Modern, but the more interesting question is: Will it ultimately matter? Dig Through Time is just as good and can go into many of the same decks. The mana fixing is excellent in Modern, so coming up with an extra Blue isn't going to prevent people from playing Dig as a replacement. I am not so sure that just banning Treasure Cruise alone will return the format to its former state (and do we even want more Pod vs. Twin skullduggery?).
Verdict: Banned
Legacy: Legacy is a much more wild beast. New cards continue to have a measurable impact on the format, but you can't expect one card to nail the whole format down even if it is this good. I think that Storm decks will adapt to take advantage of this card. I think that U/R Delver decks will increase in power and popularity to the point that many players will lose interest in the format, but I don't think that we will see a ban in Legacy, at least not as things stand now.
Vintage: Vintage is kind of crazy. On the one hand you have cards like Library of Alexandria...and I can see why people would want to play that, but you also have another hundred crazy cards that can result in turn one and two kills. If you look at what is restricted in Vintage, you will see some strange faces, but most of the offenders are either combo pieces or card filtering effects that enable combos. Based on that metric I would estimate the chance of Cruise being restricted at about 45-55 in favor of a restriction, but that all depends on how the tournament results go. People actually need to consistently choose to play it AND win with it.
Verdict: Possible Restriction.
Pauper: My personal favorite format has gone through a dramatic change because of Khans of Tarkir. Suddenly, everyone starts the game at 22-23 life because of dual lands and Brainstorm is seeing more play than ever. If you have to fill up your graveyard for Cruise, the Brainstorm-fetchland interaction becomes much more attractive. The strange thing about Pauper though, is that it is 80% aggro decks. Delver is the best deck in the format and Cruise only makes it better, but Cruise also enables several other fringe decks like Burn or Madness to compete. The most notable effect that I have seen is that Mono Black is basically stone unplayable now. It is the only deck that can't contort itself to play Treasure Cruise and that is a very good reason to switch decks. Even Tron and Affinity are starting to get in on the action. I think that we could see a ban here, but I wouldn't be in favor of it. I want a fast, powerful Pauper format and I think that Cruise actually advances that goal.
Verdict: Possible ban.
Commander: Last, but not least, we have Commander. Which, depending on your playgroup, is either the lamest format in the world or a hyper cut-throat clone of Vintage where people sometimes play cards you haven't heard of. I hardly pay any attention to the banned list in this format anyway, so I don't care much, but just for the sake of argument, let's say that everyone else cares. Every deck in the format is a graveyard deck. People main deck Tormod's Crypt in a completely unsolved metagame. Graveyards get more full, more quickly than in any other game of Magic. Treasure Cruise is at its best here, but so is everything else. If you can't beat Ancestral then you should join Ancestral. Honestly, if you are playing Blue, this is in your deck. If you aren't playing Blue in Commander, you are just dead wrong. You could make that statement about dozens, maybe a hundred or more other cards that are still legal in Commander.
Verdict: No ban.
That's all for this week folks. If you haven't already, check out the spoilers for Commander 2014, some sweet stuff has been previewed already and more is coming out every day. I will be back next week with full coverage of the new Commander product and all the juicy toys it has to offer.
-GG
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