However, my interest has been piqued by the new Vintage Masters product. I, like many others, am thrilled to get the chance to play with Vintage-Legal cards on MtGO. At the time of this writing I haven't yet drafted the set, but I hear the format is a blast; a true paradise for drafters who favor high synergy decks. The only thing I am not excited about is the price tag.
Like its predecessor Modern Masters, Vintage Masters boosters carry a higher price tag. Historically, speaking, opening booster packs has never resulted in higher expected value than simply leaving it in the package. Very few sets contain a high enough density of chase cards to incentivize people to open boxes en masse, ex. Zendikar/Worldwake. When this occurs, the price of those chase cards comes down quickly as the market becomes saturated, ex. Shocklands in Return to Ravnica Block.
There are examples of high-value cards from box sets that drive the sale value of the product up, ex. True Name Nemesis in Commander 2013. This is due almost entirely to the limited supply of the product that has been manufactured, ex. From the Vault series. With an online-only release, supply cannot be a limiting factor. You can open virtual booster packs for days and they will never run out as long as you keep buying. They limit the supply artificially by only offering the chance to buy or draft the product for a limited amount of time, occasionally allowing second and third chances in the form of 'throwback drafts'.
So how does VMA compare? Is it worth it to crack them open? What is the expected value from a pack? I am setting out to answer that question. I have compiled a chart of all the cards of Rare and higher rarity. Using some information about the density of rarities provided by Wizards: Here and here. I am going to attempt to compute the average ticket value of an opened pack of VMA. Below is the chart. Followed by the answers to a few questions I know people will have.
| Card Name | Value (tix) | ||
| Ancestral Recall | 113 | Total EV per pack: | |
| Black Lotus | 200 | 3.232140985 | |
| Mox Emerald | 82 | ||
| Mox Jet | 82 | Base odds: 1/53 | |
| Mox Pearl | 82 | ||
| Mox Ruby | 86 | ||
| Mox Sapphire | 115 | ||
| Time Walk | 78 | Avg | |
| Time Twister | 25 | 95.88888889 | |
| Armageddon | 1 | ||
| Balance | 1 | Expected value per pack: | |
| Bazaar of Baghdad | 6 | 1.809224319 | |
| Channel | 0.5 | ||
| City in a Bottle | 0.5 | Base odds: 1/8 | |
| Coercive Portal | 0.5 | ||
| Dack Fayden | 4 | ||
| Demonic Tutor | 2 | Avg | |
| Eureka | 0.5 | 2.833333333 | |
| Fastbond | 1 | ||
| Jace TMS | 12 | ||
| Library of Alexandria | 2 | EV per pack: | |
| Lion's Eye Diamond | 20 | 0.354166667 | |
| Mana Crypt | 5 | ||
| Mana Drain | 11 | ||
| Marchesa, the Black Rose | 0.5 | ||
| Memory Jar | 0.5 | ||
| Mishra's Workshop | 6 | ||
| Morphling | 0.5 | ||
| Muzzio, Visionary Architect | 0.5 | ||
| Oath of Druids | 3 | ||
| Scourge of the Throne | 0.5 | ||
| Skullclamp | 0.5 | ||
| Sol ring | 1 | ||
| Time Vault | 1 | ||
| Tolarian Academy | 1 | ||
| Upheaval | 0.5 | ||
| Wheel of Fortune | 1 | ||
| Yawgmoth's bargain | 0.5 | ||
| Yawgmoth's will | 1 | ||
| academy elite | 0.25 | ||
| acncient tomb | 2.25 | Base odds 7/8 | |
| ankh of mishra | 0.25 | ||
| badlands | 3 | AVG | |
| baleful force | 0.25 | 1.221428571 | |
| baleful strix | 0.5 | ||
| basandra, battle seraph | 0.25 | ||
| bayou | 4 | EV per pack: | |
| beserk | 0.25 | 1.06875 | |
| brago, king eternal | 0.25 | ||
| burning of xinye | 0.25 | ||
| burning wish | 1 | ||
| chaos warp | 1 | ||
| clickslither | 0.25 | ||
| control magic | 0.25 | ||
| council's judgment | 0.5 | ||
| crater hellion | 0.25 | ||
| crescnedo of war | 0.25 | ||
| crovax the cursed | 0.25 | ||
| cruel bargain | 0.25 | ||
| cursed scroll | 0.25 | ||
| dack's duplicate | 1 | ||
| decree of justice | 0.25 | ||
| derganged hermit | 0.25 | ||
| drakestown forgotten | 0.25 | ||
| edric, spymaster of trest | 1 | ||
| ephemeron | 0.25 | ||
| eternal dragon | 0.5 | ||
| flowstone sculpture | 0.25 | ||
| flusterstorm | 1.5 | ||
| force of will | 24 | ||
| future sight | 0.25 | ||
| gamble | 1 | ||
| genesis | 0.25 | ||
| gerard's battle cry | 0.25 | ||
| gigapede | 0.25 | ||
| goblin lackey | 0.25 | ||
| goblin piledriver | 0.25 | ||
| grand coliseum | 0.25 | ||
| grenzo, dungeon warden | 1 | ||
| hermit druid | |||
| ichorid | 1 | ||
| jareth, leonin titan | 0.25 | ||
| karmic guide | 2 | ||
| karn, silver golem | 0.25 | ||
| keldon necropolis | 0.25 | ||
| kjeldoran outpost | 0.25 | ||
| kongming, sleeping dragon | 0.25 | ||
| lake of the dead | 0.25 | ||
| laquatus's champion | 0.25 | ||
| lightning dragon | 0.25 | ||
| living death | 1 | ||
| magister of worth | 0.25 | ||
| mana vault | 0.5 | ||
| masticore | 0.25 | ||
| mind's desire | 0.25 | ||
| nature's ruin | 0.25 | ||
| necropotence | 0.25 | ||
| nevinyrral's disk | 0.25 | ||
| norwood priestess | 0.25 | ||
| null rod | 0.5 | ||
| palinchron | 0.25 | ||
| parallax wave | 0.25 | ||
| plateau | 2 | ||
| plea for power | 0.25 | ||
| pedator, flagship | 0.25 | ||
| realm seekers | 0.25 | ||
| recurring nightmare | 1 | ||
| regrowth | 0.5 | ||
| reign of the pit | 0.25 | ||
| ring of gix | 0.25 | ||
| rofellos, llanowar emissary | 1 | ||
| rorix bladewing | 0.25 | ||
| saproling burst | 0.25 | ||
| savannah | 3 | ||
| scrubland | 3 | ||
| sea drake | 0.25 | ||
| selvala explorer returned | 0.25 | ||
| shivan wurm | 0.25 | ||
| silvos, rogue elemental | 0.25 | ||
| smokestack | 1 | ||
| sphere of resistance | 2 | ||
| spirit cairn | 0.25 | ||
| spirit mirror | 0.25 | ||
| spiritmonger | 0.25 | ||
| starstorm | 0.25 | ||
| strip mine | 1 | ||
| stroke of genius | 0.25 | ||
| sulfuric vortex | 0.5 | ||
| survival of the fittest | 2 | ||
| sylvan library | 2 | ||
| taiga | 3 | ||
| thawing glaciers | 0.5 | ||
| tradewind rider | 0.25 | ||
| tropical island | 6 | ||
| tundra | 10 | ||
| underground sea | 12 | ||
| vampiric tutor | 2 | ||
| visara the dreadful | 0.25 | ||
| volcanic island | 12 | ||
| volrath's shapeshifter | 0.25 | ||
| winds of wrath | 0.25 | ||
| woldgorger dragon | 0.25 | ||
| yavimaya hollow | 0.25 | ||
| zhalfirin crusader | 0.25 |
FAQ:
"What about foils?" - I didn't have a sufficient body of reliable information to base the price of foils on. They are valuable, and do add to the EV of opening a pack, but I couldn't state that additional value quantitatively at the time of this writing.
"What about Commons, Uncommons, or card X?" - There are certainly some Commons and Uncommons that carry value. The problem is that they tend to lose that value very quickly as more booster packs are opened. This is an ASSUMPTION of my research method: As time goes on, the total EV of the C/U cards in a VMA pack will approach zero. The same can be true of any individual card that carries value. Classical economics clearly explains that each pack of VMA opened will marginally decrease the value of all copies of card X.
"Where did you get your numbers?" - Searching through the classified section on MtGO. Looking specifically for BOTS buying individual copies of the card in question. Not the value from wholesale bots or human buyers. This 'data' is only as reliable as you believe it to be. It was true at the time it was collected, but not necessarily true for the future. Also: I am only one person, looking at a small number of classified listings, this is not a representative sample. For many cards, I did some rounding. For many other cards that are not sought after, finding an exact value wasn't possible. So, for cards that basically have no value I set a minimum price floor. Mythics are valued at 0.5, Rares at 0.25.
"Your math is wrong because reasons." - You must phrase your answer in the form of a question. Also, yes. My math is wrong. It is simplified. Potentially over-simplified. I don't have all the information I would need to make it 100% accurate. That information could potentially be available or become available though. If you have seen a better predictive model elsewhere, please share in the comments.
"Can I get a blank copy of this spreadsheet to use on any set?" - No. Go make it yourself ya mooch.
"Are you a certified expert in any of the following fields....?" - No. I mean probably not.
"Are you a wizard, Harry?" - Brilliant, Hermione.
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